Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.242085 0.293376 0.355684 0.437874 0.544825 0.681235 8.715908e-01
2025-05-04 0.162326 0.214179 0.284410 0.389035 0.545519 0.778799 1.169138e+00
2025-05-11 0.113935 0.160550 0.229351 0.342638 0.533680 0.861835 1.516708e+00
2025-05-18 0.081033 0.120292 0.182387 0.293529 0.501495 0.907829 1.869518e+00
2025-05-25 0.059418 0.092110 0.146928 0.252418 0.469152 0.947052 2.288092e+00
2025-06-01 0.047239 0.076450 0.128395 0.236136 0.480764 1.098247 3.222061e+00
2025-06-08 0.038522 0.064815 0.114162 0.223993 0.498868 1.295406 4.723711e+00
2025-06-15 0.032335 0.056435 0.104047 0.217576 0.531090 1.582972 7.450046e+00
2025-06-22 0.027519 0.049654 0.095498 0.212147 0.566693 1.949123 1.228307e+01
2025-06-29 0.023016 0.042613 0.084731 0.197612 0.568926 2.217722 1.852194e+01
2025-07-06 0.017919 0.033501 0.067462 0.160319 0.475375 1.949869 1.841016e+01
2025-07-13 0.015720 0.030116 0.062623 0.156156 0.500171 2.354989 3.184756e+01
2025-07-20 0.014051 0.027697 0.059829 0.158157 0.558016 3.155524 7.403750e+01
2025-07-27 0.012780 0.025936 0.058278 0.163875 0.643053 4.513621 2.350026e+02
2025-08-03 0.011489 0.023893 0.055528 0.164800 0.712132 6.172460 8.822983e+02
2025-08-10 0.010143 0.021487 0.051236 0.158579 0.740345 7.688896 3.537043e+03
2025-08-17 0.008937 0.019225 0.046846 0.150292 0.750991 9.229339 2.012126e+04
2025-08-24 0.008163 0.017919 0.044933 0.151277 0.830343 13.089869 3.855628e+06
2025-08-31 0.007494 0.016767 0.043218 0.152518 0.920426 19.069188 NaN
2025-09-07 0.006948 0.015851 0.042021 0.155745 1.040960 29.785429 NaN
2025-09-14 0.006453 0.014987 0.040792 0.158426 1.171282 47.729416 NaN
2025-09-21 0.005876 0.013810 0.038260 0.153391 1.217091 65.093423 NaN
2025-09-28 0.005039 0.011807 0.032560 0.129456 1.008169 50.073166 NaN